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Analyzing the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in Southeast France using a process-based model
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International audience. We know that fruit production, especially in the Mediterranean, will need to adapt to climate change to ensurethe sustainability of fruit tree-based agroecosystems. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term effectsof this change on sustainability indicators. To fill this gap, we used a fruit tree model, QualiTree, to analyze theimpacts ofclimate change on the ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in south-eastern France. To dothis, a blooming model was parameterized to simulate blooming date on the basis of climate data, and QualiTreewas supplemented with a model of nitrogen processes in the tree and a soil module describing resource input(irrigation, mineral and organic fertilization), transfer in the soil (water and nitrogen) and metabolictransformation-immobilization (mineralization, (de)nitrification). This type of extension makes it possible tosimulate a wide array of ecosystem services, including C sequestration, nitrate leaching and nitrous oxideemissions. The model was compared with data from an apple orchard in southeastern France. The predicted dailymean and variability over time of fruit growth, composition and soil water content were consistent with observeddata. QualiTree was then used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the ecosystem servicessupplied by apple orchards. For this purpose, weather variables from 2020 to 2100 were generated for threecontrasted greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and simulations were performed under two irrigation schemes (norestriction and restricted use of water). Model outputs indicated that, on average, marketable apple yields wouldincrease until 2050 and then subsequently decrease. The fruit refractometric index, an indicator of fruit quality,was projected to sharply decrease with the intensity of climate change. Ecosystem services such as C seques-tration by the orchard will decrease with climate change severity, mainly due to a higher mineralization of soilhumus, whereas N2O emissions will increase with larger denitrification rates. Soil water availability, fertility,drainage and leaching were predicted to depend more on the irrigation strategy than on climate change severity.The new functions performed in QualiTree broadened its predictive capabilities and allowed for a better un-derstanding of ecosystem service delivery in fruit orchards under varying climate conditions.
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