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Long-term outcomes and predictors of disabling disease in a population-based cohort of patients with incident Crohn's disease diagnosed between 1994 and 1997
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International audience. Background: The identification of early prognostic factors during Crohn's disease (CD) remains needed for physician decision-making to minimize structural bowel damage, which this study aimed to assess in a population-based setting. Methods: All incident cases of CD were prospectively registered from 1994 to 1997 in Brittany, a limited area of France. All charts of patients were reviewed from the diagnosis to the last clinic visit in 2015. Disabling CD course was defined according to the Saint-Antoine criteria. Results: Among the 331 incident cases of CD, 272 (82%) were followed-up for a median time of 12.8 years. The cumulative probability of developing stricturing or fistulizing CD was 66% at 15 years, and 107 (39%) patients underwent surgery. The cumulative probabilities of immunosuppressant and TNF antagonist use at 15 years were 37% and 22%, respectively. The cumulative risks for disabling disease and bowel damage were 74% and 71% at 15 years, respectively. Systemic symptoms and perianal lesions at diagnosis were independently associated with a disabling disease course. Perianal disease and short disease extension were associated with the onset of bowel damage. Deep ulcers was not predictive of any outcome. Conclusions: A disabling disease course and bowel damage occurred early in the course of CD, which suggests the need for early diagnosis and early treatment, particularly for patients with systematic symptoms and perianal disease.
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