The best COVID-19 predictor is recent smell loss: a cross-sectional study

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Gerkin, Richard, C. | Ohla, Kathrin | Veldhuizen, Maria Geraldine | Joseph, Paule, V. | Kelly, Christine, E | Bakke, Alyssa, J. | Steele, Kimberley, E | Pellegrino, Robert | Pepino, Marta, y | Bouysset, Cédric | Soler, Graciela, M | Pereda-Loth, Veronica | Dibattista, Michele | Cooper, Keiland | Croijmans, Ilja | Di Pizio, Antonella | Ozdener, M. Hakan | d'Errico, Anna | Fischmeister, Florian Ph.S | Bock, María Adelaida | Domínguez, Paloma Paloma | Yanik, Hüseyin | Boesveldt, Sanne | de Groot, Jasper | Dinnella, Caterina | Freiherr, Jessica | Laktionova, Tatiana | Mariño, Sajidxa | Monteleone, Erminio | Nunez-Parra, Alexia | Abdulrahman, Olagunju | Ritchie, Marina | Thomas-Danguin, Thierry | Walsh-Messinger, Julie | Al Abri, Rashid | Alizadeh, Rafieh | Bignon, Emmanuelle | Cantone, Elena | Cecchini, Maria Paola | Chen, Jingguo | Guàrdia, Maria Dolors | Hoover, Kara | Karni, Noam | Navarro, Marta | Nolden, Alissa | Mazal, Patricia Portillo | Rowan, Nicholas | Sarabi-Jamab, Atiye | Archer, Nicholas | Chen, Ben | Di Valerio, Elizabeth | Feeney, Emma | Frasnelli, Johannes | Hannum, Mackenzie | Hopkins, Claire | Klein, Hadar | Mignot, Coralie | Mucignat, Carla | Ning, Yuping | Ozturk, Elif | Peng, Mei | Saatci, Ozlem | Sell, Elizabeth | Yan, Carol | Alfaro, Raul | Cecchetto, Cinzia | Coureaud, Gérard | Herriman, Riley | Justice, Jeb | Kaushik, Pavan Kumar | Koyama, Sachiko | Overdevest, Jonathan | Pirastu, Nicola | Ramirez, Vicente | Roberts, S. Craig | Smith, Barry | Cao, Hongyuan | Wang, Hong | Balungwe, Patrick | Baguma, Marius | Veldhuizen, Maria, G | Farruggia, Michael, C | Pizio, Antonella, Di | Hakan Ozdener, M | Fjaeldstad, Alexander, W | Lin, Cailu | Sandell, Mari, A | Singh, Preet, B | Brindha, V. Evelyn, Evelyn | Olsson, Shannon, B | Saraiva, Luis, R | Ahuja, Gaurav | Alwashahi, Mohammed, K | Bhutani, Surabhi | Fornazieri, Marco, A | Golebiowski, Jérôme | Hwang, Liang-Dar | Öztürk, Lina | Roura, Eugeni | Spinelli, Sara | Whitcroft, Katherine, L | Faraji, Farhoud | Fischmeister, Florian, Ph S | Heinbockel, Thomas | Hsieh, Julien, W | Huart, Caroline | Konstantinidis, Iordanis | Menini, Anna | Morini, Gabriella | Olofsson, Jonas, K | Philpott, Carl, M | Pierron, Denis | Shields, Vonnie, D C | Voznessenskaya, Vera, V | Albayay, Javier | Altundag, Aytug | Bensafi, Moustafa | Bock, María, Adelaida | Calcinoni, Orietta | Fredborg, William | Laudamiel, Christophe | Lim, Juyun | Lundström, Johan, N | Macchi, Alberto | Meyer, Pablo | Moein, Shima, T | Santamaría, Enrique | Sengupta, Debarka | Rohlfs Dominguez, Paloma | Group, Gccr | Hummel, Thomas | Hayes, John, E | Reed, Danielle, R | Niv, Masha, y | Munger, Steven, D | Parma, Valentina

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International audience. Background: COVID-19 has heterogeneous manifestations, though one of the most common symptoms is a sudden loss of smell (anosmia or hyposmia). We investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19. Methods: This preregistered, cross-sectional study used a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0-100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n=4148) or negative (C19-; n=546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified singular and cumulative predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Results: Both C19+ and C19- groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean±SD, C19+: -82.5±27.2 points; C19-: -59.8±37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both single and cumulative feature models (ROC AUC=0.72), with additional features providing no significant model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms, such as fever or cough. Olfactory recovery within 40 days was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since illness onset. Conclusions: As smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19, we developed the ODoR-19 tool, a 0-10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss. Numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (10

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