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Predicting Dengue Outbreaks in Cambodia

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Cousien, Anthony | Ledien, Julia | Souv, Kimsan | Leang, Rithea | Huy, Rekol | Fontenille, Didier | Ly, Sowath | Duong, Veasna | Dussart, Philippe | Piola, Patrice | Cauchemez, Simon | Tarantola, Arnaud

Edité par CCSD ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -

International audience. In Cambodia, dengue outbreaks occur each rainy season (May-October) but vary in magnitude. Using national surveillance data, we designed a tool that can predict 90% of the variance in peak magnitude by April, when typically <10% of dengue cases have been reported. This prediction may help hospitals anticipate excess patients.

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