Foresight on land use evolution using a coherent set of possible future land use change scenarios

Archive ouverte

Ronfort, Céline | Sebillotte, Clementina | Meynard, Jean-Marc | Souchère, Véronique | Martin, Philippe

Edité par CCSD ; INRA Editions -

Workshop 4 : Landscape as a frame for and a product of development in rural areas Format du poster : 100x197
Workshop 4 : Landscape as a frame for and a product of development in rural areasFormat du poster : 100x197. Changes in agricultural land use play a role in erosion and runoff evideneet in Upper Normandy, France Foresight methodology is a means to shape this role.We applied the SYSPAHMM (SYSTEM, Processus, Clusters of Hypotheses,Micro-scenarios) foresight methodology, at the local scale (Seine-Maritime), France and involving diverse actors in agriculture. Ites a three-step methodology with a 2015 time horizon. First, the system is graphically represented to describe its current functioning. Secondly, a set of hypotheses of future evolution is elaborated involving all factors potentially influencing land use. Thirdly,relation ships between the hypotheses are analysed to provide a coherent set of possible futures. A group of hypotheses leads to scenarios, a tool to evaluate the potential environmental consequences of agricultural land use changes.

• Description
• Sujet/Public
• Outil
• Outil d'anticipation
• Mémoire et thèse
• Gestion